Study Shows Climate Change Is Leading To MLB Home Run Surge

Baseball has had a power explosion in the last ten years as home runs have been flying out of ballparks at unprecedented rates. For instance, in 2019, pitchers allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings, which was a 55.6% increase from the rate in 2011 and the highest home run rate ever. (Through the first five days of this season, batters continued to slug homers at a record pace.)

Study Shows Climate Change Is Leading To Home Run Surge

And according to a new study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society another factor is definitively at play: the warming earth.
A 1°C rise in the daily high temperature on the day of a game played in an outdoor stadium increases the number of home runs in that game by 1.95%, according to an empirical analysis published in the journal article “Global warming, home runs, and the future of America’s pastime.”


However, after controlling for variables like the physical characteristics of the baseball and sophisticated data analysis that reveal pitcher tendencies to batters, the results are still not conclusive.

The researchers believe that between 2010 and 2019, there were an additional 58 home runs each year due to global warming, totaling 577 home runs. 1.1% of all home runs in MLB during that time period are represented by that figure.

In recent years, home runs have become widely seen in the MLB as more efficient than so-called “small ball methods” such as stealing bases and hitting singles.

Even though the rise in home runs over the past ten years was mostly the result of climate change, studies predict that future warming will continue to cause pitchers’ difficulties. Modeling indicates that if greenhouse gas emissions and climate change don’t slow down, warming may be responsible for 10% or more of all home runs by 2100.

This behavior is explained by elementary physics. warming earth.The ideal gas law states that the relationship between air density and temperature is inverse. Since warmer air is less dense, a ball may go further. Justin Mankin, a climate scientist and professor of geography at Dartmouth University, is a senior author on the paper. “Just from ballistics, we know there’s going to be less drag on the baseball on a warm day,” he adds. There is a fairly strong bodily connection at play here.

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