March Madness Bracket Predictions 2023: Who will be the No. 1 overall seed?

The 2023 NCAA Tournament field is almost set, but there is drama at the top. Who will be the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s Big Dance?

March Madness 2023 bracket projections

No. 1 seeds

• Kansas (27-7, 13-5 Big 12)

Net: 9, KenPom: 9, etc. The ludicrous number of 17 Quad 1 victories by the Jayhawks should more than offset their defeats to Texas in the regular-season finale and Big 12 championship. The Jayhawks get the top overall seed, but it will be difficult to repeat.

• *Houston (31-2, 17-1 American)

Net: 1, KenPom: 1, etc. The Cougars are 6-1 against Quad 1 opponents and have a strong case for the top overall seed. Would winning the AAC tournament influence the committee?

• *Alabama (28-5, 16-2 SEC)

Net: 2, KenPom: 3, resumé. The Crimson Tide are unbeaten in Quads 2-4 and have a Quad 1 record of 10-5. If Alabama wants to be the top seed, they can make their case for the top seed by beating Texas A&M in the SEC championship game.

• *Purdue (28-5, 15-5 Big Ten)

Net: 5, KenPom: 5, etc. UCLA or Purdue? The Boilermakers have a 10-4 record versus Quad 1, and in their 80-66 victory against Ohio State in the Big Ten semifinals, Zach Edey showed off with 32 points and 14 rebounds. Does a win over Penn State guarantee a No. 1 seed?

No. 2 seeds

• +Texas (26-8, 12-6 Big 12)

Net: 7, KenPom: 7, etc. In the Big 12 championship game, the Longhorns defeated Kansas 76–56, securing their place on the No. 2 line. Should Texas also be given a No. 1 seed?

• +Arizona (28-6, 14-6 Pac-12)

Net: 10, KenPom: 10, etc. Arizona defeated UCLA in two out of the three meetings, and their 61-59 triumph in the Pac-12 championship game gives them the upper hand in the seeding.

• UCLA (29-5, 18-2 Pac-12)

Net: 3, KenPom: 2, etc. Even if Purdue loses in the Big Ten title game, the Bruins’ defeat to Arizona and a few significant injuries will keep them on this line.

• Marquette, + (28-6, 17-3 Big East)

After defeating Xavier 65-51, Marquette is secure on this line. Net: 12, KenPom: 12. in the Big East championship. The Golden Eagles have seven Quad 1 wins, which is one more than Gonzaga.

No. 3 seeds

• +Gonzaga (28-5, 14-2 WCC)

Net: 6, KenPom: 8, etc. With 87.5 points scored per game, Gonzaga is the nation’s top team and won’t be under any pressure from having the top seed. The Bulldogs are a dangerous squad in this situation as a result.

• Baylor (22-10, 11-7 Big 12)

Net: 15, KenPom: 15, etc. Against Quads 1-2, Baylor is 15-9. It doesn’t help that Iowa State defeated Iowa State 78-72 in the Big 12 tournament. As a consequence, the Bears will maintain this line.

• Kansas State (23-9, 11-7 Big 12)

KenPom: 24 and Net: 23. The Wildcats are 9-1 in Quad 1 and have only lost once in Quads 2-4. After losing to TCU on Thursday by a score of 80–67, it will probably keep them on this line.

• UConn (25-8, 13-7 Big East)

Resume: Net: 8, KenPom: 4. The Huskies are 17-1 outside of Quad 1, and they have a strong enough resume to be on the No. 3 line.

No. 4 seeds

• Xavier (25-9, 15-5 Big East)

Net: 22, KenPom: 16, resumé. After defeating Creighton 82-60 and making it to the Big East title game, the Musketeers moved up a line, but the loss to Marquette served as a reminder that they belonged on the No. 4 line.

• +Duke (26-8, 14-6 ACC)

Net score: 16, KenPom score: 21. The Blue Devils have won nine straight games under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer, the most recent being a 59-49 triumph against Virginia in the ACC championship game. Will the Blue Devils be given a third-seed ranking?

• Texas A&M (25-8, 15-3 SEC)

KenPom: 19, Net: 18. In conference play, the Aggies put together an outstanding season, and they proceeded to the SEC championship to play Alabama.

• Tennessee (23-10, 11-7 SEC)

Resume: Net: 4, KenPom: 6. The Vols are 10-10 in Quads 1-2, but it has been a gradual slide to a No. 4 seed. A 78-71 loss to Missouri in the SEC quarterfinals did not help. Indiana or Virginia could fit here, but we will stick with Tennessee.

No. 5 seeds

• Virginia (25-7, 15-5 ACC)

Net score: 26; KenPom: 34. After falling short by a score of 59-49 in the ACC championship game, the Cavaliers traded seed lines with Duke. Against Quad 1 opponents, Virginia has a 5-4 record.

• Indiana (22-11, 12-8 Big Ten)

Net: 30, KenPom: 30, etc. The Hoosiers fell to Penn State 77-73 in the Big Ten playoffs after splitting their final six regular-season contests.

• TCU (21-12, 9-9 Big 12)

KenPom scores 26 while Net is 28. The Horned Frogs have eight Quad 1 victories and only one Quads 2-4 defeat. That CV is impressive.

• State of Iowa (19-13, 9-9 Big 12)

Net: 20, KenPom: 23, resumé. The Cyclones have 10 Quad 1 victories, and the Big 12’s quality of schedule is a bonus. Due to this  they are not over-seeded.

No. 6 seeds

• +San Diego State (27-6, 15-3 MWC)

Net: 14, KenPom: 14, etc. The Mountain West Conference’s level of respect from the selection committee is still unknown, although the Aztecs should continue after winning the conference tournament.

• Miami (25-7, 15-5 ACC)

Net score is 35 and KenPom is 39. In Quads 1-2, the ACC regular-season champions had a 10-4 record. An other major issue heading into the NCAA tournament is Norchad Omier’s ankle ailment.

• Saint Mary’s (26-7, 14-2 WCC)

Net: 11, KenPom: 11, etc. Saint Mary’s had a very comparable resume and was a No. 5 seed the previous season. How harshly will they be punished for Gonzaga’s 77-51 victory over them in the West Coast Conference title game?

• Missouri (23-9, 11-7 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 42, KenPom: 51. The Tigers have the lowest ranking combination of any SEC team in the field, but they did not have a loss outside Quad 1.

No. 7 seeds

• Kentucky (21-11, 12-6 SEC)

KenPom: 27, Net: 25 on the resume. The Wildcats had three losses in Quads 3 and 4 and were 6-7 versus Quad 1.

• Creighton (21-12, 14-6 Big East)

Net: 17, KenPom: 13, your resume. The Blue Jays had a 3-9 record in Quad 1, despite their high ranked combination.

• Northwestern (21-11, 12-8 Big Ten)

KenPom scores 42, Net scores 41. The Wildcats had a 7-5 record in Quad 1, but after losing to Penn State 67-65, they were eliminated from the Big Ten tournament.

• Michigan State (19-12, 11-8 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 32, Net 33. The Spartans had kept up a 6-9 record versus Quad 1, but a defeat to Ohio State in the final game left them feeling unsatisfied going into the tournament.

No. 8 seeds

• +FAU (31-3, 18-2 C-USA)

Net score: 13; KenPom: 25. Only two Quad 1 victories will prevent the Owls from losing their ranking despite their 78-56 victory over UAB in the Conference-USA tournament.

• Arkansas (20-13, 8-10 SEC)

KenPom: 20 and Net: 21. Despite having a 4-10 record versus Quad 1 opponents, the Razorbacks have dropped four of their previous five contests.

• Maryland (21-12, 11-9 Big Ten)

Net: 31, KenPom: 22, resumé. Three of the Terps’ past four contests ended in losses. The good news is that in Quads 3–4, Maryland did not suffer a defeat.

• Iowa (19-13, 11-9 Big Ten)

KenPom scores 37, Net scores 39. The Hawkeyes had 13 triumphs over Quads 1-2, but they also suffered three defeats to Quads 3-4. They are the squad of chaotic upheavers.

No. 9 seeds

• Memphis (25-8, 13-5 AAC)

Resume: Net: 29, KenPom: 28

• West Virginia (19-14 7-11 Big 12)

Resume: Net: 24, KenPom: 17

• Illinois (20-12, 11-9 Big Ten)

Resume: Net: 34, KenPom: 33

• Penn State (22-12, 10-10 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 49, KenPom: 43

No. 10 seeds

• Auburn (20-12, 10-8 SEC) 

Resume: Net: 32, KenPom: 29

• Providence (21-11, 13-7 Big East)

Resume: Net: 55, KenPom: 44

• USC (22-10, 14-6 Pac-12)

Resume: Net: 50, KenPom: 36

• Utah State (26-8, 13-5 MWC) 

Resume: Net: 19, KenPom: 18

No. 11 seeds

• Boise State (24-9, 13-5 MWC) 

Resume: Net: 27, KenPom: 31

• Pitt (22-11, 14-6 ACC) 

Resume: Net: 67, KenPom: 78

• **NC State (23-10, 12-8 ACC) 

Resume: Net: 45, KenPom: 55

• **Rutgers (19-14, 10-10 Big Ten) 

Resume: Net: 40, KenPom: 35

• **Mississippi State (21-12, 8-10 SEC)

Resume: Net 48, KenPom: 49

• **Arizona State (22-12, 11-9 Pac-12)

Resume: Net: 66, KenPom: 68

No. 12 seeds

• +Oral Roberts (30-4, 18-0 Summit) 

Resume: Net: 36, KenPom: 56

• +Charleston (31-3, 16-2 CAA) 

Resume: Net: 51, KenPom: 74

• +Drake (27-7, 15-5 OVC)

Resume: Net: 54, KenPom: 66

• *VCU (26-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10) 

Resume: Net: 58, KenPom: 67

No. 13 seeds

• +Iona (27-7, 17-3 MAAC) 

Resume: Net: 59, KenPom: 75

• +Kent State (28-6, 15-3 MAC) 

Resume: Net: 57, KenPom: 71

• +Louisiana (26-7, 13-5 Sun Belt) 

Resume: Net: 89, KenPom: 92

• +Furman (26-7, 15-3 Southern) 

Resume: Net: 88, KenPom: 89

No. 14 seeds

• +Princeton (21-8, 10-4 Ivy) 

Resume: Net: 116, KenPom: 116

• +Vermont (23-10, 14-2 America East) 

Resume: Net: 109, KenPom: 113

• +Colgate (26-8, 17-1 Patriot) 

Resume: Net: 101, KenPom: 113

• +UC-Santa Barbara (27-7, 15-5 Big West) 

Resume: Net: 100, KenPom: 102

No. 15 seeds

• +Montana State (25-9, 15-3 Big Sky) 

Resume: Net: 103, KenPom: 110

• +Kennesaw State (26-8, 15-3 Atlantic Sun) 

Resume: Net: 114, KenPom 127

• +UNC-Asheville (27-7, 16-2 Big South) 

Resume: Net: 140, KenPom: 146

• +Grand Canyon (24-11, 11-7 WAC) 

Resume: Net: 104, KenPom: 109

No. 16 seeds

• +Northern Kentucky (22-12, 14-6 Horizon) 

Resume: Net: 154, KenPom: 161

• +Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10, 14-4 Southland) 

Resume: Net: 174, KenPom: 170

• +**Howard (22-12, 11-3 MEAC) 

Resume: Net: 214, KenPom: 215

• +**Southeast Missouri State (19-16, 10-8 OVC)

Resume: Net: 242, KenPom: 257

• +**Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15, 10-6 Northeast) 

Resume: Net: 301, KenPom: 312

• +**Texas Southern (14-20, 7-11 SWAC)

Resume: Net: 292, KenPom: 285

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