How The NFL Has Shifted Away From ‘Star Running Backs’

The NFL was once a league filled with dominant running back such as Walter Payton, Marcus Allen and Eric Dickerson, as well as plenty of other hall of fame running backs, but how has the NFL shifted away from that era of exceptional RBs?

The NFL is a pass first league in 2023

In 1977 NFL offenses where passing the ball just 38% of the time, compared to in 1982 NFL teams where passing the ball 47% of the time, a 9% increase in passing. What influenced this heavy change in passing?   First, in 1978 the NFL instituted a rule where it was illegal for defensive backs to make significant contact with wide receivers more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. This was a major change for the leagues offense’s because now teams could throw the ball deep with looser coverages and if the pass was incomplete they would be able to draw a penalty as players were still adjusting to the new rules. Secondly, the 49ers won a Super Bowl in 1981 using a new scheme of offense. As coordinators opened up their playbooks to include more passing plays the 49ers discovered what is now known as a ‘West Coast Offense’. A West coast offense consists of multiple WRs in a single formation as well as endless backfield formations all involved in a short passing game. The NFL has always been a copy cat league, but in the 1980s the copy cats where out in full force. The 49ers’ west coast style was copied all over the league, decreasing the usage of running backs league wide. In 2023, the LA Chargers passed the ball 65% of the time. Their running back Austin Ekeler also lead the team in receptions, more than WR Keenan Allen and WR Mike Williams. Over the years teams have incorporated RBs into their passing game, Receiving backs such as Christian McCaffery, Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara are prime examples of this, the league has veered away from the idea that running backs should only be used on the ground.

Taking Running Backs in the first round is not worth it

Looking back at the 2021 NFL Draft, in the first round, two running backs were drafted, those being Steelers‘ Najee Harris and Jaguars’ Travis Etienne. Etienne spent the entirety of his rookie year on the sideline with an Lisfranc tear, and Harris has yet to prove why he is the best running back from the draft despite being a stud at Alabama. Patriots Running back Rhamondre Stevenson was also drafted in the 2021 NFL draft, however, he was drafted in the 4th round, significantly later than Harris and Etienne. Through the first 3 years of Stevenson’s NFL career, it can be argued he has been a bigger role player than both Harris and Etienne. Being first round talents Harris and Etienne are entitled to more money, so if the NFL is a pass first league and first round RBs cost more money than ones you can get in later rounds, why would teams use their early picks on RBs?

In the 2022 NFL, former Texas RB Bijan Robinson and former Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs were both drafted within the first 12 picks. This is the first time since 2017 that two running backs have been selected during the top half of the first round, but are they worth it?

Well, either player are yet to play a single snap of an NFL game, so my short answer of it is no, they aren’t worth the early pick.!  Bijan Robinson may be the best Running back prospect the NFL has ever seen to come out of college, but who is not to say he will flop in the NFL Similar to QB Johnny Manziel or Tim Tebow.  Not only is the possible of Bijan flopping real, but he is also going to be the highest paid running back in 2023, that is absurd given the fact he hasn’t even sniffed an NFL field yet. Bijan Robinson is projected to make 13 million dollars cash in 2023, no Running back even comes within 1.5 million close to that, not even Nick Chubb or Christian McCaffery. Im sure everyone understands how elite Bijan Robinson can be, but is he really worth 13 million dollars as a rookie? To me it doesn’t seem worth it when RB is the most replaceable position on a football field. Josh Jacobs just had one of the most impressive seasons by a RB ever and the Raiders will probably still let him walk, because they know their is another running back out their who they could sign for half the cost, yet still be highly productive.

Most of the time, a Running backs success is dependent of their offensive line

A running back usually does not independently thrive, most of the time they are reliant on the guys ahead of them. If you put Nick Chubb behind the worst offensive line in the league he would not rush for 1500 yards like he did in 2022, I would argue Chubb wouldn’t even rush for 1200 yards. Although Nick Chubb is lethal RB, he is so successful because the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. There are very few running backs that can influence their own success, those being Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. You can’t put a running back in a bad system and expect them to succeed because just like passing the football, the rushing game is a 2 man job, the offensive line and the running back themself.

The Truth Why RBs Like Dalvin Cook Are Still Unsigned

Dalvin Cook is 27 years old, he should be in the prime of his life, but the running back position is not very durable players like Cook and Elliot are key examples of this. Elliott in his rookie year was the most electric player in the league , but after his junior year he wasn’t the player he was two years prior. This is exactly why most running backs don’t make it out of their rookie deal, if a team was to sign Cook he would be looking for a 12-15 Million Dollar deal, which he isn’t worth. Cook may have gas left in the tank but he isn’t worth his price tag. Why would a team sign Cook if they could draft Tyjae Spears out of Tulane, or DeWayne McBride out of UAB, two guys that can both be studs on very cheap rookie deals.

The league has moved on from three down backs, and the numbers prove that. The sad truth is that we may never see a player like Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch ever again.